Politics of the Surge

General Petraeus' "report" on the surge is due in just under a month now, and the pro-war spin machine is in high gear. The Bush administration wants to keep troops in Iraq for the foreseeable future at all costs and in order to gather just enough public and congressional support to enable them to do this they are employing several different strategies aimed at different sections of the electorate.

The most effective strategy thus far, meant for the right-wing base, the most uninformed of the swing-vote electorate, and the moderate Democrats in congress comes the claim that the surge is working. The right-wing base can be counted on to support and trumpet whatever the administration decides to present as "factual," and a large number of people can be counted on not to check behind the headlines and are therefore easily fooled by the mass media's ever-complicit Iraq war "reporting." In congress, the moderate Democrats who weren't able to turn the tide against the war when coverage in the press was largely reflective of public opinion against the war cannot be counted upon the stand up when the political climate is decidedly mixed. Although in this environment things can change quickly, the opinion that the military part of the surge is working is already fixed in public opinion and will be the ground upon which the post-report debate takes place in September.

Unfortunately, for anyone who wants to check into the matter, the numbers simply don't add up.

For the middle swing voters and especially the moderate Democrats comes news that General Petraeus will likely announce a troop reduction in September. This typical Machiavellian trick of taking your opponent's position in an effort to defeat him will also need to be overcome by those who want the war to end sooner rather than later. The tough questions, such as how long the remaining troops will remain in Iraq, whether there are circumstances in which the troop levels mights actually be increased thereafter, what the position will be if the Iraqi leadership continues to fracture and fail to achieve political reconciliation, will be asked but will not knock the announcement of troop reductions off the headlines.

Beyond the propaganda, the logical of interventionism playing out here is such that good news is interpreted to suggest that we need to stay in Iraq longer, as is the bad news.

Being a pessimist on such matters myself, I think that unless there is a sea-changing event, we will be in Iraq until the 2008 elections and likely beyond.